The Worldwide Market for Alzheimer’s Disease

It isn’t necessarily crass to consider the potential market for Alzheimer’s Disease therapy.  Certainly, profit isn’t the only concern regarding Alzheimer’s Disease research, however  increased knowledge about the growing Alzheimer’s market will potentially increase investment in Alzheimer’s-related research that will eventually lead to a cure.  In other words, while Alzheimer’s Disease research isn’t only driven by profit motive,  if that is a way to get people involved in Alzheimer’s research that can result in a cure, then this is not something that should be overlooked.

The general figure often quoted about the Alzheimer’s population in the U.S. at present is 5 million people suffering from the disease, in both early and late stages.  With a huge 80-million Baby Boomer generation now reaching senior age, this number is bound to increase.  New medical breakthroughs in other fields mean that the younger generation will live longer, increasing the rate of Alzheimer’s Disease in generations to come.

In 2006, worldwide, Alzheimer’s Disease was estimated to have at least 26.6 million sufferers.  By 2050, the number is estimated to be quadruple that number.  The statistics do not take into account misdiagnosis or those who don’t have access to proper health care, as might be the case in more impoverished nations.   Additionally, there is less documentation about Alzheimer’s Disease in relation to other ethnic groups besides the Caucasian demographic, as most Alzheimer’s studies worldwide are centered around Caucasians.  Needless, to say the total Alzheimer’s demographic is significant and growing.

Estimates of Alzheimer’s Disease worldwide were made using extrapolations typically based on US, UK, Canadian or Australian prevalence or incidence statistics and only the population of the other country. As such, these extrapolations may be highly inaccurate (especially for developing or third-world countries) :

• U.S. – 5 million
• Canada – 500,000
• Mexico – 1.5 million
• South America – 3.5 million
• U.K. – 800,000
• France – 900,000
• Germany – 1.2 million
• China – 19 million
• Japan – 1.8 million
• India – 15 million
• Australia – 300,000

By 2010, Alzheimer’s Disease is estimated to be a $7.8 billion industry. The major share of this money is for Alzheimer’s drugs that are currently on the market, but (given these drugs ineffectiveness of curing the disease), the possibility of a more-advanced therapy for Alzheimer’s would likely account for the majority of the market.

The main issue regarding current drugs available for Alzheimer’s Disease is that the majority are for mild to moderate Alzheimer’s Disease and require early detection models that have yet to be perfected.  Aricept, Exelon, and Razadyne are all aimed at moderate and lower cases of Alzheimer’s.  Only Namenda is aimed at more severe cases.  These drugs are aimed at the symptoms of Alzheimer’s, not the cause, so a curative therapy would take up the bulk of the market.  As shown in this graph, there is a significant market share for Alzheimer’s therapy drugs not included in the main four listed above:

(source: Alzheimer’s Disease: Progress or Profit? pdf)

Regardless of which drug is the most economically viable, the trend line is on the way up, as Alzheimer’s cases are increasing rapidly.

Research into Early Detection vs. Cure

As early detection is crucial for pharmaceutical therapies to work, anyone looking to invest in Alzheimer’s Disease should also look towards research that can lead to early detection, as well as cure.  The p97 of bioOasis is aimed at both detection and curative models, which makes it a more diversified form of Alzheimer’s research. Because of the detection properties of the p97 biomarker means that the research could lead to increased effectiveness for Alzheimer’s drugs currently on the market, as well as drugs that come on the market in the future.  However, p97’s success in clinical trials show that it could very well be a vital factor of new curative drug therapy as well.

By no means is p97 the only promising Alzheimer’s therapy.  There are several Alzheimer’s therapies in different phases of research.  What must be factored in as well is the fact that current research into other types of Alzheimer’s drug therapy could incorporate research into p97 and other models to create a complete curative compound, so all research into Alzheimer’s has the potential of contributing to an eventual cure. This does not have the market potential of a drug therapy originating at a single source, but it can mean a significant return on investment.

Technorati Tags: Alzheimer's market research, Aricept, Exelon, Namenda, Razadyne

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